Rumor Queen Breakdown on Referrals

Still no referrals for December and yes, it is January 2. The word is they will be here tomorrow but there is still no word on what the cutoff date. Let's hope that they finish September 2005 (we are Oct. 24,2005). One agency in Europe received their referrals today through September 27, but that could just mean that they only had log in dates to the 27th and not any for the remainder of September. September or Bust!!!!

This is an interesting analysis from the Rumour Queen site..... this is totally copied and pasted from her site....but it helps break the numbers down.


I think many of us are looking at the new year with a mix of feelings. For many of us, when we brought in 2006 we did so with the knowledge that this would be the year that we’d bring home the child we already hold in our hearts. And now it’s 2007 and we are still looking forward.
What can we look forward to? First, let’s see where we’ve been.
On October 3, 2005 the CCAA referred up to March 15, 2005.
It is now 15 months later and they have referred up to September 8, 2005. In fifteen months (457 days) they have referred 5.8 months.
If they refer up to September 29th (that’s still an if at this point but it’s my current best guess) on the 3rd then in 15 months they will have referred 6 months and 14 days, or a total of 198 days.
457 / 198 is 2.3
That means it has taken an average of 2.3 calendar months to get through each LID month since the slowdown began. Some have been more, some have been less, but that has been the average.
What can we hope for 2007? I think you have to figure out how much time is left between September 29th and your LID date, and then multiply that number by 2.3. If the CCAA is farther than 2 months away from your LID then multiply the time between 9/29/05 and your LID by 2.3 and that is probably a good indicator of how much longer you have to wait. (If you are closer than 2 months an average probably isn’t going to help you much, we’ll need to look at the poll data.)
As an example, if your LID is December 29th, 2005 then you are three months away so you have about 7 more months to wait. If your LID is June 6, 2006 then the CCAA is 250 days away from your LID, multiply by 2.3 and you get 575 days or about 19 or 20 more months to wait. If you were logged in December 29, 2006 then the CCAA is 456 days away from your LID, multiply by 2.3 and you get 1,049 days, or about 34 or 35 months until referral.
If you are relatively close then we need to take into account whether there are more small months or large months, but once you are about six months out that effect will probably even itself out.
And, as I said earlier, if you are closer than two months then we probably need to figure it based on the polls. I have a new daily poll all ready to just fill in the blanks once we are sure of the cut-off this time. Once we know the cut-off I’ll take the current poll down and put the new one up.
Many of us have thought things were going to speed up “next month” for the past 15 months. It hasn’t happened yet, so at this point I think we have to assume we’ll keep seeing more of the same. Probably until they begin working on the May of 2007 families, which at the current rate should happen sometime in the fall of 2010.
I think there is a chance we may see that number drop to 2 months, instead of 2.3 months. And a year from now that number may drop to 1.8 months as more and more people switch to other programs or have an opportunity come up for a domestic adoption. So for those farther out it may be more accurate to use 2 as the multiplier, which would mean someone who was LID on December 30, 2006 would be waiting 30 months instead of a possible 35 months.